Traditional steel prices near the peak season can continue strong?

August 29, the domestic steel market shaky operation. 25 cities, Fuzhou, Beijing, Nanchang and other five cities rebar prices rose 10-70 yuan / ton, most cities maintain stability to wait and see; Hangzhou, Guangzhou, Tianjin, Chongqing and other cities in 14 cities hot volume prices rose 10-50 yuan / Ton; Hangzhou, Beijing, Wu'an and other cities in the plate prices rose 10-30 yuan / ton.

29, Tangshan Pu billet ex-factory price rose 30 to 3730 yuan / ton. The same day, Tangshan finished steel products in the steady, the channel rose 20-30, is the mainstream offer word 4140-4150, channel 4080- 4100, angle 4230; thread three 4040-4060, three small 4090-4120, up 20-30.

29, the black futures trend differentiation, rebar, hot rolled futures main shock operation, iron ore, coke, coking coal futures shock downstream. The first two weeks of the main force of the rapid rise faster, rose and fell, increase the spot market fluctuations in steel. The current trend of the direction is still not clear, snail is still positive shock pattern.

Steel spot market

Construction steel: August 29, the country's 25 major cities HRB400 (20mm) rebar average price of 4208 yuan / ton, compared with the previous day price rose 5 yuan / ton. Judging from the actual feedback, the disk due to snail significantly down, the day spot transactions than usual, businesses offer dark down behavior. Is expected tomorrow domestic construction steel or to maintain a narrow range of consolidation operation.

Hot rolled coil: August 29, the country's 24 markets 4.75mm hot rolled coil prices reported 4184 yuan / ton, compared with the previous day price rose 16 yuan / ton. The current market inventory resources are relatively small, coupled with the order price of steel mills is still high, which the market price has some support. But the current demand is relatively weak, high-priced resource transactions difficult, is expected to run hot-day market price shocks tomorrow.

Cold rolled coil: August 29, the country's 24 major cities 1.0mm cold rolled coil average price of 4754 yuan / ton, compared with the previous transaction price rose 5 yuan / ton. The current market volatility is more obvious, the latter part of the trend is not clear, some of the profits have business cash out of ideas, is expected to maintain the short-term shock adjustment pattern.

Plate: August 29, the country's 24 major cities in the plate price of 4034 yuan / ton, compared with the previous day prices rose 5 yuan / ton. Steel prices are still strong today, some of the northern steel mills early lock price of 10-30 yuan / ton rise, the cost of support is still strong. But the downstream demand is relatively weak, the market inquiry a lot but the actual purchase is limited, is expected to run tomorrow, the plate market price shocks.

Raw material spot market

Import ore: August 29, Jingtang Port 61.5% Australian powder mine reported 585 yuan / ton, compared with the previous day price fell 10 yuan / ton. Tangshan region to Hong Kong situation has improved, shrinking port, stocks rose slightly, iron ore spot price support weakened, ore prices or weak shocks.

Coke: 29 domestic coke spot market running smoothly, the market trading atmosphere is good. Shanxi area coke market is the mainstream of the two major tax ex-factory price of 1840-1900 yuan / ton; Hebei Handan two metallurgical coke factory tax 2010 yuan / ton; Wuhai area two coke mainstream factory tax price 1780-1850 yuan / Ton; East China coke market is currently the mainstream of the factory tax price of 1930-2020 yuan / ton. Steel procurement sentiment slightly fluctuating, but the blast furnace starts so that the need to stay in the short-term domestic coke market is still on the upward momentum.

Scrap: 29 scrap market temporarily stable, the transaction in general. Jiangsu region is now heavy waste prices remain at 1900-1960 yuan / ton; Shandong area heavy waste prices in 1810-1880 yuan / ton. Fujian market waste duty tax paid 1750-1790 yuan / ton. Hubei heavy waste tax-related prices in the basic 1560-1610 yuan / ton. Shanxi area heavy waste tax 1790-1900 yuan / ton. Hebei heavy waste tax in 2090-2230 yuan / ton. These are tax-free to the factory price.

Steel market forecast

According to my steel network monitoring, last week the country's 163 steel blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 91.18%, up 1.57% over the previous week, after a few weeks to maintain between 89% -90%. According to the latest data of China Steel Association, in early August the focus of steel enterprises in crude steel daily average of 1.868 million tons, slightly more than 16,600 tons of ring.

Combined with my network and steel Association data, August crude steel production or slightly higher than last month. Taking into account the seasonal factors, the average daily production of crude steel in September or there is still room for growth, but capacity utilization has been at historically high, incremental or still limited.

According to my steel network monitoring, 7-8 months of the mainstream traders trading volume of smooth fluctuations in building materials, year on year growth continued. On the one hand, real estate, infrastructure investment growth higher than the same period last year, investment in building materials demand growth. On the other hand, the manufacturing sector generally warmer this year, especially the substantial growth in construction machinery production and sales, sheet metal consumption also showed a good trend.

6-8 months this year, the performance of the traditional off-season demand is not short, with the economic stability is inseparable. However, the traditional season in September can not be too optimistic, steel consumption or difficult to grow significantly. First of all, the domestic economy "stable" is still the main tone, private investment vitality is still insufficient, the Government pay more attention to "fill short board, to leverage" in the second half of the economic growth rate may be slightly down.

Second, since June the domestic steel prices gradually climbed, breaking the new high during the year, triggering downstream steel companies to resist the psychological, raw material inventory to maintain a low level.

According to my steel network monitoring, last week the sample steel plant steel stocks 4,773,000 tons, down 2.9% in the week, a record low during the week, only higher than the first week of August 4,647,000 tons. According to China Steel Association data, in early August the focus of steel steel stocks 12.224 million tons, down 5.6% over the same period last month, in the middle of the year low level. I network and steel association data basically match, indicating that the steel sales pressure is not, also led to its relatively strong price adjustment.

At present, the steel market wait and see attitude is still strong. On the one hand, due to higher levels of steel prices, lack of downstream procurement power, brokers stocking is not strong, the recent spot market transactions in general. On the other hand, steel stocks are still low, and subject to the higher cost of getting goods, dealers price cuts are not large.

Short term, the steel market or continue to shock pattern.

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